Military experts warn about danger of Karabakh conflict escalation

The advance of Azerbaijani border guards into the territory of the Gazakh District indicates the President Ilham Aliev's intent to resume negotiations with Armenia on Nagorno-Karabakh; however, a change in control over border sections can lead to a conflict escalation, the political analysts and military observers interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" assert.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on August 14, Azerbaijani border guards took up new positions on the neutral strip of the border with Armenia in the Gazakh District.

The changes on the troops contact line are tactical, not strategic, said Pavel Felgengauer, a military observer for the "Novaya Gazeta".

"Combat clashes have already occurred in the Gazakh District; and the current manoeuvres are far from the first ones," he told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent. According to Mr Felgengauer, the situation is dangerous. Although the conflict is not in its active phase, it has a smouldering character; and military operations are gradually spreading to other territories. The expert believes that in the near future, a conflict escalation should be expected, which will go towards the north.

In the opinion of Alexander Perendjiev, a military political analyst and an associate professor at the Plekhanov Russian Economics University, the aim of the manoeuvre is a moderate provocation by Baku, which should encourage Yerevan to resume negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh.

"Azerbaijan is looking for a way to put pressure on Armenia to force it to concessions," he believes.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on August 17, 2019 at 05:53 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.