Ilham Aliev’s demarche highlights new style of relations between Baku and Moscow

By demonstratively refusing to attend the Victory Parade in Moscow, the President of Azerbaijan has underlined the geopolitical role of his country that has grown since the victory in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and the desire to build relations with Russia only on an equal footing. Moscow is capable of responding harshly to the Ilham Aliev’s demarche, but the risks of such a development are minimal, Russian analysts believe.

The Ilham Aliev’s refusal to participate in the Victory Day events in Moscow was a demonstrative step, suggests Doctor of Geographical Sciences Alexei Gunya, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). “Ilham Aliev is balancing in his policy towards Russia, believing that he can get away with anything. In this context, it seems to me that he went too far by not coming to Moscow to participate in the Victory Day events,” Doctor of Geographical Sciences Alexei Gunya told the “Caucasian Knot”.

The AZAL plane crash, the closure of the “Russian House” in Baku, accusations of cyber attacks on Azerbaijani media, and a story of the sudden ban on entry to Russia for Azerbaijani MP Badamov, an associate of Ilham Aliev, indicate that a reassessment of the relations between Russia and Azerbaijan is underway, the expert believes.

“There is clearly an assessment and reassessment of the relations between the countries, an attempt by Russia to draw Ilham Aliev into the circle of reliable allies. But times have changed. Even before the AZAL plane crash, Azerbaijan was looking for opportunities to get out of all ‘guardianship’ in order to raise the ‘price’ of Azerbaijan, taking advantage of the increased geopolitical importance of the South Caucasus for Russia. Now all sorts of reasons are being put on this mutual tangle of reproaches,” Alexei Gunya noted.

For Russia, this cooling is a kind of betrayal

The expert predicts that the Moscow’s reaction to the Ilham Aliev’s demarche will be harsh. “For Russia, this cooling in relations is a kind of betrayal. The same unpredictability has emerged that is typical for Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan. However, Azerbaijan has a special account, given our common history, close ties and mutually beneficial economic relations. I think that Russia has enough leverage to give Azerbaijan at least a chance to cool its arrogance. I believe that the Russia’s reaction will be harsher,” Alexei Gunya emphasized.

The Ilham Aliev’s refusal to participate in the Victory Parade in Moscow may be seen as a demonstrative step with a clear message to the Kremlin, agrees a specialist on the South Caucasus, who referred to remain anonymous.

“Firstly, this is a clear demonstration of the growing independence of the Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. Secondly, this is a hint at the cooling of the Russian-Azerbaijani relations against the backdrop of the recent geopolitical events. The formal explanation of participation in events dedicated to his father looks quite diplomatic, but in fact, it is a veiled way of expressing own dissatisfaction,” the expert told the “Caucasian Knot”.

Entry ban on Azerbaijani MP Badamov becomes more the last straw than the reason

The expert suggests that the AZAL plane crash and the closure of the “Russian House” in Baku created significant tension in bilateral relations. “The Ilham Aliev’s decision not to go to Moscow is the result of the accumulated contradictions between the two countries. This is both the AZAL plane crash and the closure of the ‘Russian House’ in Baku, and the entry ban on Azerbaijani MP Badamov has become more the last straw than the main reason. It should be taken into account that this is part of a broader transformation of the Azerbaijan’s positions after the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and the changed international situation,” Alexei Gunya noted.

As for the long-term consequences of the cooling of the relations between Moscow and Baku for the South Caucasus, the risks here are quite controllable, the expert believes.

“The biggest risk is the risk of destabilizing the existing balance of power in the region. I don’t see any other risks. We are not seeing a sharp break in the relations between the countries, but a subtle diplomatic game, where Ilham Aliev is demonstrating his ability to manoeuvre between various geopolitical centres of power, while maintaining the strategic independence of Azerbaijan. His key message to Moscow is that Baku is no longer ready to be exclusively in the wake of the Russian foreign policy and intends to pursue a more balanced multi-vector foreign policy,” the expert emphasized.

The Ilham Aliev’s refusal to participate in the Victory Parade in Moscow was quite expected, believes political analyst Konstantin Kalachyov, the head of the Political Expert Group.

“It was quite expected. He did not come, but Azerbaijani servicemen marched along Red Square, which can be considered a great success for Ilham Aliev. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is on the podium, and Azerbaijani soldiers are marching in front of him. That is, Ilham Aliev was not there, but he was present. As for the Ilham Aliev’s message, it shows that Azerbaijan should be taken seriously as a regional power, as a sovereign independent state,” the political analyst told the “Caucasian Knot”.

After resolution of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku is not so dependent on Moscow and wants equal relations

The political analyst suggests that the Ilham Aliev’s refusal to go to Moscow can also be expected by the fact that the investigation into the AZAL plane crash has not been completed by May 9.

“I think Ilham Aliev expected that the investigation into the plane crash, which has dragged on, would be completed before May 9. In fact, this problem in the relations between the countries is being identified by the Azerbaijani side. After the resolution of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku is not so dependent on Moscow and wants equal relations. However, the case with the AZAL plane crash showed that they were a little mistaken in their wishes, since Moscow did not do as Baku wanted. The investigation has not been completed, and the guilty persons have not been punished. And in this situation, the opinion of the Azerbaijani society is much more important to Ilham Aliev than what Moscow will think of him,” political analyst Konstantin Kalachyov explained.

“Baku was considered the Moscow’s main ally in this region, but now this role is changing, and Baku is already considered a partner. And it won’t get any worse. It won’t get any worse than the current stage. The countries will cooperate in those areas where contacts have already been established, and at the same time they will compete in those areas where there has always been competition: this is the energy sector. The relations between Moscow and Baku at this stage will not fundamentally affect the state of affairs in the South Caucasus,” the political analyst concluded.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on May 2, 2025 at 11:59 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.