Political analysts assess threat of parliamentary crisis in Armenia

The constitutional crisis, which may arise if the oppositional MPs refuse from their mandates, does not guarantee the opposition's victory at early elections, the political analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that since April 25, the Armenian opposition has been holding rallies, marches and motor rallies, demanding not to admit a change of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and resignation of Nikol Pashinyan's government. Thus, on May 11, the “Resistance” opposition movement organized several motor rallies in Yerevan, and their participants called on city residents to come to a rally demanding the resignation of the Armenian Prime Minister. Fifteen activists were detained for failure to obey the police.

Armen Vardanyan, a political analyst, did not rule out the option that the oppositional MPs would resign their mandates, which would lead to a constitutional crisis. Nevertheless, even if the opposition manages to achieve early elections, their chances to win are zero, Mr Vardanyan asserts.

"If Robert Kocharyan again leads the opposition at new elections, Nikol Pashinyan will undoubtedly win. Moreover, I believe that the opposition will receive even less than it has now. The last year's elections showed that Kocharyan is a guarantee of the restoration of Pashinyan's power. The electorate will vote not for Pashinyan, but against Kocharyan," Armen Vardanyan has stressed.

Andrias Gukasyan, a political analyst, believes that the parliamentary opposition is able to create a constitutional crisis by resigning their parliamentary mandates.

"Perhaps, the parliamentary opposition will wait until August, when the law will allow a vote of no confidence in the government, and, having received a refusal, will give up their mandates. It is possible that they will do this, having exhausted the potentials of the street struggle," Mr Gukasyan told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

However, the constitutional crisis does not guarantee that in the event of early elections, the opposition will be able to take more mandates, Andrias Gukasyan has added. "It may turn out that their positions will deteriorate; and some third parties will gain votes. But I think that it will not come to that. In two or three weeks, the protests will subside, and the opposition will think about how to end the protests. Most likely, the opposition will return to parliament; and everyone will sit quietly in their places until the end of the parliament term in office," the political analyst has suggested.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on May 13, 2022 at 01:19 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.