No one to benefit from Kadyrov's death known for sure

The investigation continues into the act of terrorism at the Dynamo stadium in Grozny, Chechnya, on May 9, that led to President Akhmat Kadyrov and republican State Council Chairman Khusein Isaev dying. The investigators are considering several scenarios of what happened, but at the same time they say only two of them are the key ones.

"Huge work has been carried out over these several days, and the investigation into the act of terrorism in Grozny on May 9 has shown significant progress in this matter. There are suspects, and there are specific achievements. Just two scenarios among numerous versions of what happened are currently considered the key ones," a high-ranking officer of Chechnya's Internal Affairs Ministry told us. However, the police officer refused to name these specific scenarios for the benefit of the investigation.

Akhmat Kadyrov had had many enemies both among the separatists and Chechens loyal to Moscow. Akhmat-hajji Kadyrov had survived thirteen to seventeen attempts on his life, according to some information. The last attempt that occurred at the May 9 celebration practically gave him no chance to survive.

The investigators think that the assumption of treachery among the Kadyrovites remains the most sustainable version, although representatives of the late president's security service deny the involvement of their officers in what happened, as well as the version that the act of terrorism against Akhmat Kadyrov was possible through the inadvertence and banal slovenliness of his guard. "The reports that there is a traitor among us (the security service) who helped to organize the terrorist act are a provocation in order to introduce a rift and disbelief among us," Security Service Headquarters Chief Arthur Akhmadov told us in a conversation. "I can vouch for any one of our men that risked their lives repeatedly while doing their duty. At the same time, I would like to mention we have no bomb squad of our own or dog trainers with dogs trained for finding explosives. Meanwhile, it is actually impossible to find a bomb in concrete through usual examination."

Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of the republic's residents are convinced that Akhmat Kadyrov was murdered by "insiders," i.e. the Russian military. "The bomb blown up at the Dynamo stadium in Grozny on May 9 was specially designed and planted to hit its target. It killed whom it had been planned to kill - Akhmat Kadyrov. Only highly qualified military professionals with huge experience of treating explosives could have prepared and carried out such an operation. The guerillas can plant homemade bombs, blow up armored vehicles and service men, but they would not have been able to carry out such filigree work. Kadyrov's murder is the handwork of professionals, to be sure," says Ramzan, 53, a former Soviet Army officer.

The key reason for Akhmat-hajji Kadyrov's elimination was his disputes with the military, in people's view. As everyone knows, he had openly made claims for Chechnya's oil shortly before his death, demanding that the federal center should deliver control over Chechnya's oil sector to the republican leadership. Besides, the Chechen leader had been seeking control over federal funding apportioned to reconstruct the republic, and he had insisted that federal forces should deliver their "counter-terrorist operation" functions to Chechnya's Internal Affairs Ministry.

Kadyrov's death as Moscow's main protege in the Chechen Republic can have lead to extremely negative results. Practically everyone agrees with this. Firstly, Chechnya's residents are afraid of an upsurge of punitive and repressive actions on the part of federal forces and local law enforcement and security agencies; they are afraid of so-called "clean-ups" in cities, towns and villages with a lot of young men detained, torture and beating and degrading of people. A statement by General Tikhomirov, commander of the Russian Internal Affairs Ministry's troops, that additional forces would be sent in Chechnya "if need be" is an indirect confirmation of their fears.

Akhmat Kadyrov's death is also a blow to the guerillas he had won over to his side. Many of them who turned themselves in to the authorities as their security was guaranteed by the Chechen leader personally are now afraid of persecution on the part of federal forces. Besides, it can make the general situation in the republic even worse, while it is grave without that. This also goes for the reconstruction of destroyed homes and payment of compensations to republican residents, as well as many other problems that actually were solvable with mediation of Akhmat Kadyrov alone.

The upcoming early presidential election can generate problems that will be no less major. Aspirations of various clans and groups to power in the republic are also fraught with unpredictable consequences. Some confidential sources say Bislan Gantamirov, former Grozny mayor and one of the most ardent opponents of Akhmat Kadyrov, arrived in Chechnya's neighboring Ingushetia the other day where he is holding active meetings and consultations with his supporters.

In spite that on May 13 the State Council and government of Chechnya addressed the Russian president with a request to support the nomination of the killed republican leader's son Ramzan Kadyrov at the upcoming election (which in fact means an appeal for appointment of Kadyrov the junior as Chechnya's new president), power struggle in the republic can be very tough. Presidential contenders are many in Chechnya, and there are people among them that have some authority and enjoy support of a considerable part of the population, while a very limited contingent of citizens like Ramzan Kadyrov who headed his father's security service (treated by the republican population with hatred mixed with fear because of the violence and abuses committed by the Kadyrovites).

So-called "Moscow Chechens" have most chances to be elected (if they are nominated and if the upcoming election is "clean"), as many republican residents see it. These are Ruslan Khasbulatov, the former speaker of the Russian parliament; Aslambek Aslakhanov, an adviser to the Russian president; businesspeople Malik Saidullaev and Khusein Jabrailov and banker Abubakar Arsamakov.

Bislan Gantamirov is among the possible winners, too. One cannot either rule out the possibility of the "Ingush scenario" when Murat Ziazikov, a little-known special service general, surprised everyone becoming head of the republic. Said-Selim Peshkhoev, a Federal Security Service major-general and former internal affairs minister of Chechnya, may become "Chechen Ziazikov." The probable alignment of forces in the forthcoming presidential campaign in Chechnya will apparently be known in the next couple of weeks.